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Using tick-level data from Polymarket and Kalshi, this study finds the classic favorite-longshot bias is largely a ‘Yes Bias,’ that the most capitalized traders systematically underperform smaller ones, and that the most vocal participants add no informational edge. It offers a reproducible method for denoising prediction-market probabilities.
A new 128-year database of U.S. corporate bonds (1895–2022) — over 100,000 bonds and 7 million observations — uncovers a sizable, statistically significant credit risk premium that shorter modern samples fail to detect. The findings support strategic allocations to corporate credit for long-horizon investors and establish a new benchmark for empirical asset pricing in fixed…
Institute of Advanced Investment Management Article Showcase